摘要
本文从人口波动的独特视角对"民工荒"现象作出了全新的解读。我国人口的波动使劳动年龄人口自身的结构发生剧烈的变动:一方面劳动年龄人口逐渐老化,年轻劳动力比例不断下降,而企业则坚持只使用劳动力最年轻时期的浪费型用工模式,导致年轻劳动力供需失衡;另一方面,每年新进入劳动年龄的人口迅速减少,破坏了企业每年劳动力更替的补给通道。高等教育的初次职业分流作用使本就日益减少的年轻劳动力中体力劳动者的数量进一步减少。所以"民工荒"问题并不主要是刘易斯拐点所描述的农业劳动力向城市转移减少的城乡间流动问题,而是由于人口波动和高等教育扩招造成年轻的体力劳动者规模整体减少的问题,是伊斯特林所描述的人口长波对经济社会影响的具体体现。
This paper made a new interpretation of the phenomenon of "migrant workers shortage" from a unique perspective of demographic swings.The demographic swings had caused dramatic structural changes of working-age population.On the one hand,working-age population was keeping ageing gradually and the proportion of the younger workers was declining,but the employers preferred the young.This contradiction led to an imbalance of supply and demand of young workers.On the other hand,the number of fresh workers entering into the labor market was declining every year,which destroyed the path of annual turnover of workers.Furthermore,the high education created the first profession division,and its expansion aggravated the decline of the young workers supply.Therefore,the shortage of migrant workers was not a sign of the Lewis turning point which is described as the decreasing migration flows from rural areas to urban due to the vanishing of the surplus labor force in rural areas,but an issue associated with the overall reduction in size of young manual-worker population caused by demographic swings and the expansion of high education.This was supported by Easterlin's argument: the fluctuation of population exerted a great influence on the economic and social development.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第8期5-13,共9页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国性别失衡与社会稳定研究"(08ZJD0025)
中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目"中国人口结构变动对经济发展的影响"(11XNH099)
关键词
民工荒
刘易斯拐点
伊斯特林长波
migrant workers shortage
Lewis turning point
Easterlin demographic swings