马尔萨斯“警醒”与中国人口的国家干预政策

Alarm of Malthus and government intervention policy to population of China

1958～1979我国明显处于马尔萨斯"诅咒"或"陷阱"时期,谷底在1960年。1949年以来的实践证明"警醒"或"陷阱"最主要作用是促进"政府干预"性质的"基本国策(计划生育)"的诞生和实施。本文利用总和生育率(TFR)模型P_n=(TFR/2)P_(n-1)计算了如果"不实行"计划生育政策,从1949年起政策支持TFR=6.0的生育水平,相对2008年的实际总人口13.28亿,四大政策减少出生了132.52亿人;如果保持TFR=5.0的生育水平,减少出生了71.095亿人。如果保持TFR=4.0的生育水平,减少出生了29.92亿人。如果保持TFR=3.0的生育水平,减少出生了4.945亿人。四大宏观调控政策"调控人口"是成功和有效的。

During 1949-1979, the contradiction between population and resource of China was from the foods. Under the curse of Malthus during the periods we considered the whole country was in the trap of Malthus because both the population and production of foods increased, while the average levels of food decreased. The periods during the trap of Malthus began from 1958 and ended in 1979, and the lowest was in 1960. Because of the pressure from foods, the four policies of household registration system, coupons system （including the food coupons and food cards system）, up to the mountains and down to the villages, and family planning were carried out one by one. With the total age-specific fertility rate （TAFR or TFR） population model Pn=（TFR/2）Pn-1, we calculated the reduced population if there had been not the four government intervention policies. Given the ＂TFR=6.0＂ from 1949, the population would have been 14.58 billion, about 13.252 billion more than the actual population 1.328 billion of 2008; given the ＂TFR=5.0＂, the population would have been 8.4375 billion, about 7.1095 billion more than the actual population of 1.328 billion; given the ＂TFR=4.0＂, the population would have been 4.32 billion, about 2.992 billion more than the actual population; given the ＂TFR=3.0＂, the population would have been 1.8225 billion, about 0.4945 billion more than the actual population of 1.328 billion. It was proved that the four policies of government intervention in China were successful and effective.