中国旅游业发展质量的实证研究——旅游业外贸竞争力之贸易实得指数的理论分析及测算

Empirical Research on Development Quality of Tourism in China:Theoretical Analysis and Measurement of Real Trade Index concerning Foreign Trade Competitiveness of Tourism

由于传统外贸竞争力评价指标自身存在的缺陷和旅游业统计方法的特殊性,在对显示性比较优势指数和贸易竞争优势指数进行批判继承的基础上,文章结合中国2020年建设成为世界旅游强国的目标,创建了贸易实得指数,使用投入产出表重新评价了2000-2009年中国旅游业的外贸竞争力,并与美国和澳大利亚两个国家进行横向比较,借以实证研究近十年来中国旅游业的发展质量状况。研究结果表明,在过去的十年里,中国旅游业的外贸竞争力呈下降趋势,旅游业发展质量不容乐观,要实现世界旅游强国的目标任重而道远。

Owing to the defects of traditional foreign trade competitive- ness index and the statistical particularity of tourism, this paper critically in- herits revealed comparative advantage index and trade competitiveness in- dex, and creates real trade index under the goal of making China a world tourism power in 2020. Using the input-output table, it revalues foreign trade competitiveness of tourism in China from 2000 to 2009, and makes a horizontal comparison between US and Australia in order to empirically study the development quality of tourism in China in the past decade. The re- sults show that the foreign trade competitiveness of tourism in China has a downward trend and the development quality of tourism is not good. The goal of making China a world tourism power is a tough task, so there is a lon~ way to achieve it.