深圳地铁运营对轨道交通客流预测的启示

Illumination of Forecasting Passenger Flow of Shenzhen Metro on Its Operation

研究目的:深圳市轨道交通一期工程运营以来,客流处于全国最好的水平,部分车站的客流已经接近设计水平。若运营中出现客流超出运输能力的情况,会对地铁公司的正常运营带来很大的风险,为规避运营风险,需对实际客流较之设计客流进行校验,对可能导致客流断面激增的因素进行预估。研究结论:本文以深圳市轨道交通运营的统计数据和设计资料为基础,重新审视其设计时的客流预测结果,系统地定性分析了客流高断面超出设计水平的影响因素,得出深圳地铁客流将在网络化以后将进入快速增长阶段的结论,建议地铁公司应适当增加车辆配置以应对客流的快速增长。

Research purposes： The passenger flow of the Shenzhen rail transit of the first- phase has been in the top of China since it opening to traffic and the passenger flows of some stations have arrived at the design capacity. If the passenger flow is more than the traffic capacity, there is big risk to the operation of the metro. In order to avoid the risk, it is necessary to verify the actual passenger flow with the forecasted passenger flow and evaluate the factors that effect the rising of the passengers flow.Research conclusions：Based on the statistics of the metro operation and design data , this paper reviews the result of the forecasted passenger flow and qualitatively analyzed the influence factors when the passenger flow is more than the design capacity. It is concluded that the passengers flow will rise severely after the metro network is established in Shenzhen, and it suggests more cars should be installed for Shenzhen metro to deal with rapid increase of the passenger flow.