基于DFA方法的中国财险业盈利能力分析

The Profitability Analysis of China′s Property Insurance Industry based on DFA Methods

我国财险业在过去十年间发展迅速,但保费收入的增加并没有显著提高财险公司的盈利能力。如何提高企业盈利能力,优化经营效率的提高是财险业持续健康发展的根本。本文尝试建立我国财险行业经营活动的动态财务分析模型,运用Crystal ball软件模拟了未来五年财险行业净利润相关财务指标的变化趋势。本文的实证研究表明股权投资、基金投资、企业债投资、赔付率对净利润的贡献巨大,进而指出财险业应该增大股权投资比例同时控制投资风险,并通过加强理赔管理、控制赔付率上升来改善中国财险业的盈利能力。

China＇s property ＆ casualty insurance industry has developed rapidly in the last decade, but premium growth has not significantly improved P＆C insurers＇ profitability. How to enhance their profitability and optimize their operational efficiency is a fundamental issue for maintaining continuous and healthy development of the industry. This article attempted to employ the Dynamic Financial Analysis method （DFA） to simulate the P/C insurance industry＇s operations with the Crystal Ball software. The empirical research showed that equity investment,fund investment, corporate debt investment and claim ratio made great contributions to the net profit. It pointed out that the property insurance industry should increase the proportion of equity investments while controlling investment risks, and that it should also strengthen claims management and control the claim ratio to improve the profitability of China＇s property ＆ casualty insurance industry.