大庆长垣外围油田规划编制中产量预测方法

A Method of Production Prediction of the Planning Arrangement for Chang Yuan Oilfield of Daqing

确定规划期的总产量和产量构成是油田开发规划的最主要工作。目前国内从事油田开发规划方面研究的单位积累了一定的经验,但是以产量规模作为主要的规划指标时,指标预测的准确性与可操作性有待提高,规划编制的科学性和自动化程度有待加强。本文根据油田开发实际情况和规划安排需要,可以将产量构成划分为三大部分:一是开发时间较早,目前已经出现较长时间递减的区块或井,采用Arps递减曲线法;二是开发时间较短,目前刚进入递减或即将递减的区块或井,采用分类多元回归方法;三是新投产区块产量预测,采用"五率"配产方法。从而为外围低渗透油田开发规划方案的编制提供科学依据。

The mostly work of oilfield development programming is the establishment of programming total production and constitutes of production. At present, the unit of oil field development planning in domestic has accumulated some experience, But when the scale of the production planning is taken as the main indicators, the accuracy and operability of indicator forecasting is to be improved. Scientific planning and automation needs to be strengthened. Based on the actual situation of the oil field development and the needs of the planning constitutes, it is divided into three parts of the production forecast： the first part is the section or well , whose exploitation time is a little earlier, and has been reducing for an extended period, should use the descending curve method; the second part is the section or well , whose exploitation time is a little shorter, and will or just have come into reducing period, should use the assorted multiple regression method, the third is the production forecast of the new production block which should use the five-rate method of production allocation. All above provides a scientifie basis for the establishment of the external low-permeability oil field development programming.