基于钱纳里模型的中国经济结构研究——来自1978～2009年的经验证据

Research on Chinese Economic Structure Based on Chenery Model——Empirical Evidence from 1978～2009

自20世纪80年代以来,中国经济一直处于高速增长态势,即使2008年席卷全球经济的国际金融危机也没有阻碍其增长步伐。研究经济增长对经济结构优化的影响具有重要意义。以钱纳里的经济结构分析模型为出发点,运用中国1978～2009年的真实数据实证分析了经济增长和就业人数两大因素对经济结构的影响,并使用弹性系数指标对影响程度进行细致刻画。从实证结论中得到如下启示:一是应继续解放和发展生产力,以经济的高速增长带动经济结构升级和优化;二是保持产业结构按"二、三、一"顺序发展,加强对第三产业的投入;三是通过发展第二、三产业来解决就业压力问题;四是促进经济和谐增长,积极转变经济增长方式。

Since 1980s, Chinese economic has been in rapid growth; even this international financial crisis has not hindered its growth pace. It＇ s important to research on the economic growth＇ s influence to the optimization of economic structure. In this paper, based on Chenery economic structure model, it analyses the impact of real economic growth and the number of employment to the economic structure based on data 1978 - 2009, and uses elastic coefficient index to measure the impact. The conclusions are： first, should continue to emancipate and develop productive forces in order to promote rapid economic growth to upgrade and optimize the economic structure; the second is to maintain the industrial structure by the order of ＂secondary, tertiary, primary＂, and strengthen the input to the tertiary industry; third, solve the employment problem through the development of secondary and tertiary industries; fourth is to promote harmonious economic growth and to transform economic growth mode.