货币供给、通货膨胀、经济增长之间关系的实证研究——基于2006～2010年数据的分析

Money Supply,Inflation,Economic Growth,the Relationship between Empirical Research——Based on the Experience of 2006～2010 Data

利用我国2006年12月～2010年12的月度数据,在VAR模型的基础上,对我国货币供应、通货膨胀、经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现,短期内通货膨胀和经济增长对货币供应量的效应相反;货币供应并不影响通货膨胀和经济增长;经济增长与通货膨胀无关,通货膨胀对经济增长具有正面效应。长期来看,通货膨胀和货币供应量之间正相关;经济增长对货币供应具有负效应,货币供给量的增加促进经济增长,证实我国存在托宾效应;经济增长和通货膨胀之间作用相反,通货膨胀损害经济增长的弗里德曼假说在我国适用。同时得出我国货币供给具有非中性和内生性特点的结论。

The paper uses the data of Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010, making an empirical analysis of the relationship between money supply,inflation and economic growth, based on VAR model It has been discovered that inflation and economic growth have opposite effects on money supply in the short run. Money supply has no influence on inflation or economic growth. Economic growth has nothing to do with inflation, inflation has positive effects to economic growth. In the long term, inflation and money supply are positive correlated. effects to money supply, the increases in money supply promoting economic growth Tobin effect. The interactions of economic growth tion hurts the economics can be applied in China. neutral in the long run and endogenous. and inflation is quite the contrary. Meanwhile, there also draws a Economic growth has negative proves that our country exists Friedman hypothesis that inflaconclusion that money supply is neutral in the long run and endogenous.