产业依赖、就业与经济增长——基于1980～2009年数据检验

Industries Interdependence,Employment and Economic Growth: Based on the Data for the Year 1980～2009

经济增长中,三次产业之间存在相互依赖的关系。随着第一产业回报率的降低,投资和劳动力逐渐转向第二、第三产业直至达到均衡。资本和劳动力不断在三次产业中转移,产业之间相互依赖使得总资本和总劳动力存在适当的分配比例。当符合这个比例的时候,所有的资源得到充分利用,经济就能够健康稳定增长。当这个比例被打破的时候,会有部分资源无法达到最大产出而处于闲置状态,导致经济增长的失衡。对经济数据进行分析表明,目前我国第一产业劳动力已经过剩,需要向第二、第三产业转移。

There is interdependence relationship among three industries in a country＇ s economic growth. As the rate of return in first industry is reducing, investment and labor move to the other two industries before the equilibrium. Investment and labor are always flowing among industries according to the proportion about the industries interdependence. When the right proportion is followed, the utility of all resources is efficient. The economic growth is healthy and stable. But if the equilibrium is broken, there will be some of the resources out of efficient in order to slow down the economic growth. The analysis about Chinese data shows the surplus labor in first industry. The other industries need employ more labor.