基于均衡汇率角度的人民币升值问题分析

Study on the Appreciation of the RMB Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rate

在人民币不断升值的大背景下,关于人民币升值的合理性及临界点的探讨已成为热门话题。人民币汇率的合理性问题归根到底是实际汇率是否偏离均衡汇率的问题。在考虑中国转型经济特点和对基本经济因素进行分析后,建立了人民币均衡汇率模型,将估计出的均衡汇率与实际有效汇率进行比较分析,确认人民币确实存在一定的低估,但失调程度不大。因此对于人民币升值我们应保持在适度的范围内,而不应屈从于外在压力。在此基础上进一步提出了人民币汇率调整的方法建议。

the problem of rationality of RMB rate of exchange actually is whether actual rate of exchange deviares the balanced rate of exchange or not. After the consideration characteristics of transforming economic and the analysis to the factors of the basic economic, we build up the model of RMB equilibrium rate of exchange , and compare the actual rate of exchange with the equilibrium rate of exchange that we estimate through the model. We discover that RMB is really under - estimation, but the out of tune degree is not big. This text still put forward the suggestion of adjustment of the RMB rate of exchange.