保险波动与经济波动：顺周期抑或逆周期

Insurance Fluctuating and Economy Fluctuating:Pro-cyclically or Counter-cycliclally?

本文是对保险周期与经济周期关系的研究的拓展延伸。本文将保险波动关系解构为保险数量波动和保险质量波动,构建保险数量波动模型和保险质量波动模型,研究保险波动和宏观经济波动的相依关系。研究结果表明,保险数量和GDP是顺周期波动的;在经济子系统中,保险数量与消费、外贸子系统顺周期波动,而与投资周期无显著联系。保险质量与GDP、投资、消费、贸易、CPI、股市均无显著的规律波动关系,但保险质量和市场利率显著反向波动。保险质量和保险数量之间具有稳定的逆向波动关系。基于以上发现,笔者认为,无论保险公司还是监管机构,都应该更加关注保险波动的经济规律,注重保险质量提升,在保险周期间采用相应的措施维持保险产业的相对平稳。

This study is an extent exploration on relationship between insurance cycle and economy cycle. We construct an insurance quantity fluctuation model and an insurance quality fluctuation model to study the fluctuating correlation dynamics between insurance sector and macro - economy system. We find that insurance quantity is pro - cycllcal with GDP, consumption and foreign trade fluctuating,but no significant relation with investment variation. Insurance quality is counter - cyclical with market interest. We also find a stable counter - cyclical relationship between insurance quantity and insurance quality. We suggest that,insurers or supervisors, should pay more attention to the rule of insurance fluctuating, try their best to improve the quality of insurance development and keep stable of the industry using corresponding method during insurance cycle.