地方政府财政支农支出与农村居民消费--来自中国29个省市面板数据的经验证据

Local Governments' Fiscal Expenditure Supporting Agriculture and Rural Residents'Consumption:Empirical Evidence from China's 29 Provincial Panel Data

本文在消费者最优消费路径选择的基本框架下,构建了一个政府财政支农与农村居民消费的动态最优化模型,理论分析表明:地方政府财政支农支出的增加,对于农村居民消费水平的提高具有促进作用。基于1995-2008年的省际面板数据,采用工具变量GMM方法对该结论进行的实证检验发现:在通过多工具变量克服变量内生性之后,地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有显著的促进作用,地方政府财政支农支出每增加1%,我国农村居民消费将增加0.1367%;进一步的因素分解显示,地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费的平均贡献度为8.72%,且有逐年增大的趋势。此外,财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响存在区域差异性,即财政支农支出对我国中西部地区农村居民消费的影响程度大于东部地区。

Under the basic framework of optimal consumption route choice, this paper constructs a dynamic optimization model of governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture and rural residents＇ consumption. The theoretical analysis shows that an increase of local governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture has a stimulative effect on rural residents＇ consumption. Based on China＇ s inter - provincial panel data from 1995 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical study of this conclusion through instrumental GMM. The study finds that： after overcoming the endogeneity with multiple instrumental variables, the local governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture has a significant stimulative effect on rural residents＇ consumption, and an increase in local governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture by 1% raises the rural residents＇ consumption by 0. 1367% ;The further factor decomposition shows that the average contribution of local governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture to the increase of rural residents＇ consumption,which is trending upwards annually, is 8.72% ; And there are regional differences in the influence of local governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture on rural residents＇ consumption, that is, the impact of governments＇ fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture to rural residents＇ consumption in China＇ s central and western regions is much stronger than that in the eastern region.