我国核心通胀率的决定因素:基于面板数据的实证研究

The Determinants of Core Inflation Rate in China——An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data

本文在Gali and Gertler(1999)的理论模型的基础上,将开放条件下进口中间品价格因素引入模型进行扩展,构建了一个开放经济条件下的核心通胀模型,然后采用GMM方法对多种影响因素进行了回归分析,并对结果作了稳健性检验。结果显示,进口中间品相对价格、通胀预期、货币增长速度等对通胀的影响较显著,但对产出缺口的反应不显著,这表明国内实际需求影响并不大,而名义需求和进口品价格影响较大。该结论对运用货币政策、外汇冲销和汇率升值政策来缓解的通胀压力方面具有一定的启示意义。

In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model based on the work of Gali and Gertler （1999） by taking into account the price of imported intermediate goods in an open economy, then using GMM to analyze the influencing factor of the core inflation, and conducted robust test. The results showed that the relative price of imported intermediate goods, inflation expectations, monetary growth rate have significant influence, but the output gap is not significant, indicating that nominal demand and import prices have greater impact than the real domestic demand. The conclusion has some enlightenment on easing inflationary pressures with monetary policy, sterilized intervention and exchange rate policy.