国际金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响

The Effects of International Financial Crises on the Export of China's Mainland

本文用1994年第一季度至2010年第二季度的季度面板数据为样本,研究了中国对主要贸易伙伴的出口增长率与其影响因素之间的关系。研究发现,国际金融危机可以通过收入途径和汇率途径影响中国的对外出口,但人民币汇率实际升值对于中国出口造成的影响不大,而贸易伙伴的经济衰退对中国出口造成的影响更为显著。而除了汇率途径和收入途径外,金融危机还会对中国的出口产生纯粹的显著不利影响。此外,出口退税率在调节中国出口方面的效果明显,因此提高出口退税率可以有效应对金融危机对出口的影响。

Employing quarterly panel data from 2004Q1 to 2010Q2, the paper analyzes the relationship between export growth of China's Mainland and its determinants. Some results have been found. Firstly, through exchange rate path and income path, international financial crises can exert negative influence on the export of China's Mainland. The associated point estimates shows that a real appreciation of the RMB lowers China's Mainland＇s export, the effect tiny in magnitude, but the real economy reeession of trade partner affect China's Mainland＇s export adversely and important in magnitude. Besides these two paths, financial crises also can generate evident pure damage to export of China's Mainland. In addition, the export tax refund rate affects export significantly, so it can be used as a policy tool to tackle the influence of financial crises.