2030年全球战略预测

Strategic Global Outlook:2030

未来20年世界发展演进中将不会出现过往20年间较为典型的剧变和震荡。美国将在创新、金融和军事领域保持全球领导者的地位。中国地位的加强将最大程度地影响到全球权力均衡。以市场经济和民主为基础的全球化意识形态将维持其世界主导思想体系的地位。意识形态将更频繁地与全球的政治、社会经济和文化发展趋势相关联。这将成为未来全球治理意识形态的基础。在2030年前,世界文化体系以及各种文化内核发生大规模变化的可能性极小,同时很难形成创新文化和生产文化占主导地位的全球文化。全球治理的机制和原则将继续形成。世界经济发展的主要动力为创新和全球化。全球化在未来20年将继续推动世界经济的增长。但在预测期的前半段,将始终可以感觉到世界金融经济危机的影响。限制增长的主要因素来自于新的世界经济金融危机以及保护主义的抬头。2011-2030年,世界经济年均增速将达到4.0%到4.5%。中国接近中等发达国家水平并拥有较高的社会经济发展速度是2030年前的主要变化。"发达国家"和"发展中国家"的传统划分将发生改变。增长质量和竞争力标准将决定一国在世界经济版图中的地位。中国在GDP规模上至少会接近美国的水平,但GDP中的创新成分及其他质量型的成分方面仍将落后于美国。中国将转变为全球最大的内需市场,并将成为维系全球内需的主要因素。世界将不再遭受能源短缺的困扰。中国和其他一些亚太国家、印度以及拉美的主要国家在国际资本流通中的比重将会增加。国际货币体系的根本性变化将在很大程度上取决于人民币成为世界货币的时间。"七国集团"或"八国集团"的作用将发生改变。跨国公司和跨国银行的活动和影响领域将进一步扩大。社会矛盾不仅会侵蚀一些国家的社会体系,还会招致一系列国际社会问题(移民、人口、种族冲突等)。全球安全方面,世界大国在维护世界和平方面相互协作的趋势将压倒相互对抗的趋势。未来20年,为避免自身不被边缘化、能应对未来的风险,以及利用全球化所带来的新机遇,俄罗斯必须使自己的内外战略有效地适应全球发展的主要趋势。

In the next two decades,the world will face less radical changes and shocks that were typical for previous twenty years.The United States will maintain its leadership in science and innovations,finance and military force.The strengthening of China will make the greatest impact on changes of global balance of power.Ideology of globalization based on market and democratic principles will remain to be the leading system of ideas in the world.Ideologies will be increasingly interconnected with global political,social,economic and cultural trends.This would become a basis for ideology of global governance.Large-scale and significant changes in the worldwide ＂set of culture＂ and in the inner nature of each culture are highly unlikely in the horizon of 2030,the same is unlikely to form a global culture that will be predominantly innovative and productive.The formation of mechanisms and principles of global governance will be accelerated.Major driving forces of the worldwide economic development are innovations and globalization.In the next twenty years,globalization will continue speeding up a growth of the world economy.But the impact of the world financial economic crisis will still exist in the first half period of the forecasts.A new financial and economic crisis and possible rise of protectionism may become the key limitation to economic growth.In 2011-2030,the average rates of growth of the world economy will be 4.0-4.5%.China＇s approach to the group of middle-income countries with high rates of social and economic development will represent the main shift by 2030.The very traditional division of countries into developed and developing one will change.Quality of growth and criteria of competitive power will determine the place of a country on the world economic map.China will at least approach the GDP level of the USA in terms of scale,but will still lag behind in terms of innovation and other qualitative components of GDP.China will turn into the biggest domestic market in the world and will become the main factor supporting global demand.The world will not suffer from the shortage of energy resources.China and some other states in Pacific Asia,India and leading countries of Latin America will increase their share in the international flows of capital.Substantial changes in the world monetary system largely depend on the time when the Chinese renminbi would become an international reserve currency.The role of G-7/G-8 will change.The activity and influence of transnational corporations and banks will be expanded.Social contradictions can undermine not only national social systems,but will cause international social problems（migration,demographics,ethnic conflicts,etc） .Tendencies towards coordinated actions of global powers for international peace will prevail over inclination to conflict.During next twenty years,Russia should efficiently adapt its domestic and foreign strategy to main trends in global development in order to avoid finding itself in a marginal position,to cope with future risks and to exploit new opportunities coming from globalization.