基于SPSS模型的黑河正义峡断面径流量变化分析

Analysis of Runoff Variation of Zhengyixia Section in Heihe River Based on SPSS Model

针对近年来黑河中游流入下游的水量逐渐减少而引发的黑河下游流域的生态环境问题,基于1990~2009年黑河正义峡断面径流量增量的变化情况,采用SPSS模型进行线性回归分析,得出了正义峡断面径流量的变化规律及变化产生的原因,揭示了影响正义峡断面径流量增量的变化因子,运用线性回归模型模拟演算了各年度正义峡断面径流量增量,并利用方差分析、残差分析等方法评估模拟的准确性。结果表明,SPSS模型模拟精度较高,准确揭示了影响正义峡断面径流量的因素及相应权重,为黑河中游最终的水量分配调度提供了理论支持,亦为有关部门决策提供了参考。

In recent years,discharge transferred from the middle reaches to the lower reaches of Heihe River has been gradually reduced and it has triggered a series of ecological and environmental problems in the lower reaches of Heihe River.Based on analysis of change of increased discharge capacity of Zhengyixia section from 1990 to 2009,the SPSS model is applied to make linear regression analysis and reveals variation factors,which affect the water quantity of Zhengyixia section.And linear regression model is used to simulate the increased discharge capacity of Zhengyixia section in each year.Then variance analysis and residual error analysis are adopted to evaluate accuracy of simulation model.The results show that the SPSS model has high simulation precision;it reveals the discharge influence factors of Zhengyixia section and the corresponding weights,which provides a theoretical support for the final water distribution scheduling of the middle reaches of Heihe River;the result also provides reference for decision making of the related department.