论中东形势对俄罗斯的影响

Influence of the Middle East Situation on Russian

俄罗斯对中东事态的基本态度是:同情阿拉伯国家反对派、支持国际制裁、反对西方军事干涉、主张政治解决。俄罗斯领导人在决策和表态时,注意维持同世界主要大国,首先是同西方大国和"金砖国家"的平衡,维持同阿拉伯国家和非洲国家的平衡,维持当事国当权派和在野派的平衡。在阿拉伯世界维持适度乱局,既有利于推高油气价格和刺激军火出口,改善俄罗斯国际收支状况;也有利于提升俄罗斯在西方心目中的地位,改善同西方关系。俄罗斯不存在强大的反对派,民众赞同现行发展方针,重稳定甚于重改革,主体民意反西方,不容易受"阿拉伯之春"的影响。

Russia＇s basic attitude on the Middle East＇s situation is： sympathy Arabic opposition, against international interference of Western military intervention, advocate a political solution. Russian leaders pointed out, the first thing is to keep balance with the Western powers and the ＂BRIC Countries＂, and then to maintain the balance between Arabic and African countries, keep touch with those in power and opposition parties. Chaos in the Arab world is helpful for Russia to push up oil and gas prices and stimulate the export of arms to improve Russia＇s international balance of payments; also help to bolster Russia＇s position in the Western mind, to improve relations with the West. There is no strong opposition in Russia, the public agreed with the current approach to development, to be stable even in heavy reform, the main anti-Western public opinion, not susceptible to the ＂Arab Spring＂ effect.