碳排放与农业经济增长关系实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Agricultural Economic Growth

随着我国农业经济的快速增长,能源消耗和二氧化碳排放数量急剧增加。本文对我国农业1981～2008年的二氧化碳排放量进行了估算,在此基础上,利用EKC模型对碳排放与农业经济增长之间的关系进行分析,并利用Kaya方法对碳排放变化进行因素分解。结果表明,碳排放与农业经济增长之间存在非均衡的"N"型曲线关系。因素分解显示,经济增长是农业碳排放最主要的驱动因素,技术进步对碳减排有较强的促进作用但具有一定随机性,能源消费结构和人口规模对碳排放影响不明显。基于上述,提出相关建议。

With the rapid growth of China＇s agricultural economy,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions increase dramatically.In this paper,China＇s agricultural carbon dioxide emissions from 1981-2007 was calculated,on this basis,using EKC model,the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth was analyzed,and the carbon emissions changes were decomposed using Kaya method.The results showed that,carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth showed non-equilibrium ＂N＂ shaped curve relationship.Factor decomposition showed that,economic growth was the most important driven factor of agriculture carbon emissions,technological progress had a strong role to reduce carbon emissions but with certain randomness,the energy consumption structure and population size had no obvious effects on carbon emissions.Based on the above,this paper presented relevant recommendations.