世纪震荡:阿拉伯世界政治动荡的原因和前景

The Shock of A Century:The Causes and Prospect for the Political Change in the Arab World

当前阿拉伯世界政治动荡的主要原因包括———社会经济问题的长期存在;政治民主化进展迟缓;地区人口的年轻化;公民社会的发展;全球化时代阿拉伯国家社会经济问题的进一步凸显;相关国家外交上缺乏主动性;信息化时代的政治影响;西方国家长期以来对"民主、自由"的鼓吹;阿拉伯世界的整体性。当前阿拉伯民众抗议的开端是社会经济性的,但迅速向政治性演变。战后阿拉伯世界四次重大的政治运动的区别表现在———地域范围的逐渐扩大;目标的递进;草根性和同时性更加突出;形式的不同。卷入运动的国家从过程和结局看大体有6种类型。"阿拉伯之春"将对阿拉伯世界的政治、经济和社会以及地区和国际关系产生重大影响。

e causes for the political change in the Arab World are long-term social and economic problems ; slow process of democratization ; the high rate of the youth in the total population; the rise of civil society; the social and economic problems in the Arab World are amplified in the background of globalization; the lack of independence in foreign policy of Arab countries ; the influence of IT technology on political movements ; the long-term propaganda for ＂democracy＂ and ＂freedom＂ in the West; the similarity of Arab countries. The characteristics of the present move- ment different from other three movements historically are as follow： the countries evolved, the political targets, con- nection with lower strata, simultaneity, the difference of forms. The countries evolved can be divided into 6 types in their process and prospects. The movement wiU have influence on the situation of Arab World and the direction of Arab League in the future, the relations between Arab World and Israel, Iran, the U. S.A. and Europe, the relations between Arab World and Russia.