宏观经济对房地产价格的影响——基于中国省际的动态面板数据

Impact of Macroeconomic on Real Estate Prices:Evidence from Thirty-one Provinces in China

本文运用系统矩估计方法(System GMM)对我国房地产价格和宏观经济变量之间的关系进行了分析。发现,适应性预期、城镇居民人均可支配收入、信贷规模、商品房销售量的增加能显著的推动房价上涨,而房地产投资额、房地产竣工面积和贷款利率的上升则能显著的抑制房价的上涨,税收对房价的影响不显著。进一步将样本分为东中西三部,发现在不同地区影响房价上涨的因素存在较大差异,其中东部房价受宏观经济变量的显著影响,中部房价受宏观经济变量的影响程度小于东部,西部房价仅受到收入的显著影响,其余因素的影响均不显著。

In this paper we examined the linkage between the macroeconomic and the average real estate prices with System Generalized Method of Moments（ System GMM）based on the data from thirty-one provinces in China. We empirically find that the adaptive expectation, the urban per capita disposable income, the size of credit, and the area of sold houses contribute to the rise of real estate prices ; the fixxed asset investment, the area of built hou- ses and the interest inhibit the rising housing prices, and taxes seem to do nothing with real estate prices. We do further research on the housing prices in different regions, finding that the real estate prices in eastern China are influenced by both adaptive expectations and macroeconomic, that in central China are influenced only by macroeconomic and that in western China are merely influenced by income.