环境与经济形势的景气分析研究

Analysis of environmental and economic situation based on the method of prosperity analysis

为了识别社会经济发展对环境的影响,借鉴宏观经济景气分析的方法,构建了环境与经济形势景气分析框架.在识别影响环境发展态势的主要社会经济要素的基础上,构建环境与经济景气分析指标体系,并划分出针对污染物排放的先行和一致性指标,同时对其进行景气指数分析,预测预警未来环境的发展态势.应用该方法对全国大气环境SO2排放展开景气分析.2008年大气环境景气分析一致扩散指数为71.43,处于景气区间;合成指数为99.53,相对于2002年总体上呈下降趋势;社会经济发展对环境呈景气影响.但是先行扩散指数跌至不景气区间,部分指标出现环境不景气的变化趋势,会影响未来SO2减排.因此,需要进一步关注各预警指标的景气动向,通过控制重污染行业的产值比重及固定资产投资增长率,提高能源利用效率,优化能源消费结构,保证社会经济同环境的协调发展.

In order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic development on environment, a framework of environment-economic situation analysis based on the method of macroeconomic prosperity analysis was set up. An index system for environmental and economic prosperity analysis was established. There were two categories of indicators, as leading and coincidence indicators, mainly from the factors influencing environmental development trend. Also prosperity index was calculated, and it could be used to predict the environmental development trend. This method was applied to investigate the trend of SO2 emission in China. In 2008, the diffusion index of coincidence indicators was 71.43, presenting a prosperous situation; the composite index was 99.53, slightly lower than that of 2002. Socio-eeonomic development had a prosperous effect on environment, while the diffusion index of leading indicators dropping into the depression region presented some adverse effects on SO2 emissions mitigation. Further steps should be taken to ensure the harmony of socio-economic development and environmental protection, such as adjusting the partitioning among key industries and fixed asset investment growth rate, improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy consumption structure.