退耕还林项目增收效果评估——基于六省区3329个农户的调查

Assessment of Impacts of Sloping Land Conversion Program on Households′ Income:On Surveys of 3329 Households

运用倾向得分匹配法,分两个阶段实证研究了退耕还林项目对退耕农户增收的影响作用。结果表明:在项目实施五年后,退耕还林工程显著的促进了参与户的收入增长,增收效应为969.55元。但是,实施七年后,项目的增收效果有所下降,即到了2006年,退耕还林工程对农户增收的净效应为771.61元。退耕还林的增收效应呈现出一种倒"U"型变化趋势。

By a Propensity Score Method,this paper studies the effect of SLCP program on participating households′ income.The results show that the program had significantly increased the household′s income after 5 years′ implementation of SLCP,and the net income effect in 2004 was 969.55 Yuan.But two years later,the program′s effect slowed down,that is,in 2006,the program increased the households′ income by 771.61 Yuan.The income increase effect of SLCP program on the participating household follows an inverted U-shaped pattern.