中国存在B-S难题吗? 被引量：4

Does China Have a Backus-Smith Anomaly?

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摘要目前中国依赖投资和出口驱动的经济发展模式已经引发诸多弊端和不良效应,在开放条件下,汇率变动对消费影响越来越大,居民消费变动的传递也会影响实际汇率,对中国的经验证据发现,实际汇率升值会抑制当前消费,随着消费增长率的增加,汇率被低估的概率减少,验证了B-S难题(消费—实际汇率悖论)在中国成立。 At present,China′s reliance on investment and export-driven model of economic development has lead to many drawbacks and adverse effects.In open conditions,the impact of exchange rate changes on consumption increases and the transmission of changes in consumption will also affect real exchange rate.Empirical evidence shows that the real exchange rate appreciation would suppress the current consumption,with consumption growth increasing,the probability of undervaluation of the exchange rate is less,which verifies the consumer- the real exchange rate paradox established in China.

作者段军山毛中根

机构地区广东商学院金融学院西南财经大学工商管理学院

出处《财贸研究》 CSSCI 2011年第4期86-92,共7页 Finance and Trade Research

基金国家自然科学基金"基于家庭异质性特征视角的微观消费储蓄行为与促进消费的宏观经济政策研究"(71073032) 国家自然科学基金"基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究"(71073030) 国家社会科学基金"从生产大国到消费大国:促进中国消费需求增长的理论与对策研究"(08CJL007) 教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"居民资产财富效应研究"(08JA790026) 广东省"千百十"人才工程第六批培养对象项目广东商学院青年骨干教师培养对象项目广东商学院国民经济研究中心"资本市场与投融资研究创新团队"项目的资助

关键词实际有效汇率居民消费 B-S难题 Probit二元选择模型 real effective exchange rate household consumption Backus-Smith anomaly Probit binary choice model

分类号 F832.6 [经济管理—金融学]

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