利用S曲线模型分析水利工程资金流

Analysis of hydraulic engineering cash flow using S-curve

资金流管理是水利工程项目管理的重要组成部分,为了在项目前期能够较准确的计算资金流,需要建立简单而快速的预测方法。本文建立了S曲线模型,收集三峡工程30个已完工的单位工程月度投资数据作为样本,采用回归分析方法模拟实际的资金流情况。分析结果表明,全部回归方程的可决系数均大于0.85,并且均通过了95%置信度的F检验,与实测数据拟合良好。但是对标准差SDY的箱线图分析发现了两个异常值,分析了产生的原因。与其他研究结果对比表明,模型的计算精度较高,能够满足实际工程的需要。

Cash flow management is important to a hydraulic project,and a simple and fast technique of accurately forecasting cash flow is often required at the early stage of project design.This paper develops an S-curve model using linear regression to fit the cash flow data sampled from 30 completed sub-projects of the Three Gorges project.The results indicate that all the deterministic regression coefficients are beyond 0.85 and pass the 95%-confidence F test,and that all the regressions produce good fitting.Explanations are given for the two outliers that were found with the boxplot analysis.The results were compared with previous studies,and it is concluded that the model is effective with a good accuracy in application.