双轨制提名下的代表当选率研究——以北京市人大代表选举为例

How the Two-track System of Nominating Process Affects the Probability of Winning?——A Case Study of Beijing People's Congress Elections

我国人大《选举法》第八章规定了双轨制提名代表候选人的方式,地方人大根据《选举法》制定的《选举操作实施细则》进一步规定了这两种方式的提名推荐比例。以北京市人大代表选举为例,北京市人大的《选举操作实施细则》规定,各级政党、人民团体联合推荐的代表候选人不超过应选代表的20%。然而,从2006年北京市区县以下的直接选举实践看,各党派、各人民团体联合或者单独推荐的代表候选人的区县人大代表的当选率几乎达到100%,而选民10人以上联名推荐代表候选人的当选率仅在10%左右;在区县人大以上的间接选举中采用大会主席团与本级代表提名上一级代表候选人的方式,其结果是,本人不是区级人大代表的市级人大代表当选率在80%左右,由本人是区级人大代表的市级人大代表当选率在20%左右;而到了市级人代会选举出的全国人大代表,即使有基层代表当选,也基本与普通选民或代表的提名无缘。由此可以总结为两个定律:其一,人大代表能否当选与双轨制提名相关,被政党和人民团体提名的各级代表候选人的当选成功率要远远高于被选民或代表提名的代表候选人的当选成功率;其二,代表的当选层级越高,与被政党和人民团体(大会主席团)提名的相关程度越高,与普通选民或代表提名的相关程度越低。

According to the Chapter VIII of China's Election Law,the candidates of the representatives of the local people's congress can be nominated by a two-track system.The Operations Regulations of the Elections Law issued by province-level congresses always set the nominating rates of each kind of candidates.For example,according to the Operations Regulations of Beijing People's Congress Election,the deputy candidates nominated by the political parties and people's organizations should not exceed 20 percentages of the total deputies.However,the probability of winning of such two kinds of candidates is very different.In the elections held in Beijing in the year of 2006,the probability of winning of the candidates nominated by the political parties and people's organizations is nearly 100%,while the winning probability of the candidates directly nominated by the voters is about 10%.With regard to the indirect elections held at the municipal level,the success rate of those candidates nominated by the parties is about 80%,however,the winning probability of the candidates nominated by the local deputies is about 20%.Regarding to the indirect elections of the National People's Congress Representatives,almost every representative are nominated by the party.We could conclude with two points:The first is that the two-track system of nominating process significantly affects the probability of winning.The success rate of those candidates nominated by the parties is much higher that of the candidates nominated by the ordinary voters.The second is that nominating process is more likely to be controlled by the party at the national and province level representative's elections.Therefore,the higher level deputies always have weaker electoral connections with the ordinary voter and local deputies.