财政支农支出对农村居民收入和消费影响的SVAR分析

An SVAR Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Expenditure for Supporting Agriculture on the Income and Consumption of Rural Residents

政府财政支农支出和农村居民消费的关系一直是经济界争论的焦点。基于1978—2009年度时间序列数据,从宏观和动态的角度,运用结构向量自回归模型考察我国财政支农支出与农村居民收入以及消费之间的关系。动态分析表明,财政支农支出对居民收入和消费的影响不同,短期看,财政支农支出促进了农村居民收入的提高,但对农村居民消费则具有挤出效应;长期看,财政支农支出不仅可以增加农村居民收入,并且对农村居民消费也会产生促进作用。

The relationship of fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture and the consumption of rural residents has long been a controversial issue within economic realm.Based on time series data from 1978 to 2007,this paper applies the model of Structural VAR to explore the relationship between fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture and the income and consumption of rural residents in China from the macroscopical and dynamic perspective.The dynamic analysis of Structural VAR suggests that the fiscal expenditure has varied influences on the income and consumption.In the short run,it boosts the income but exerts crowding-out effect on the consumption;however,in the long run,it would not only increase rural residents＇ income but also promote rural residents＇ consumption.