人口和经济增长对耕地资源影响的计量分析

Influences of Population and Economic Development on Cultivated Land Resource

在对贵州省毕节地区耕地面积、城镇化率、区域经济增长趋势变化分析的基础上,运用多元回归分析,探讨耕地面积与固定资产投资额、工业生产总值及城镇化率之间关系。结果表明,该区耕地面积从1988年的4.02×105hm2下降到2008年的3.65×105hm2,年平均递减率为0.48%。人均耕地面积由1988年的0.069 hm2下降到了2008年的0.047 hm2,年均递减率为1.90%;固定资产投资、工业发展、城镇化率对耕地面积的减少都有显著影响,弹性系数分别为-0.030,-0.002和-0.046,其中人口城镇化对耕地面积减少的影响最大。20 a间毕节地区城镇化的发展导致耕地非农化的产生,仍然是以牺牲耕地资源为代价,城市土地的集约节约利用水平有待提高。

Based on the analysis of Bijie City＇s cultivated land,the rate of urbanization and the changes of regional economic growth trends,the article selected multiple-regression model to study the relationship between area of cultivated land and investment of fixed assets,industrial output and urbanization.The results showed that cultivated area had been reduced from 4.02×10^5hm^2 in 1988 to 3.65×10^5hm^2 in 2008 with annual average decline rate 0.48%,meanwhile,per capita arable land also reduced from 0.069 hm^2 in 1988 to 0.047 hm^2 in 2008 with the annual average decline rate 1.90%.Fixed asset investment,industrial development and urbanization had significant impacts on the reduction of arable land,and their elasticity coefficients were-0.030,-0.002,-0.046,respectively,among which population urbanization exerted the greatest influence.During the past 20 years,the development of urbanization had led to non-agriculturalization of farmland at the expense of the arable land resource.Therefore,the level of the intensive and economical use of urban land needs to be improved.