托宾Q理论在我国的不适用性分析

Analysis of Inapplicability of Tobin′s Q Theory in China

托宾对通过资本市场传导货币政策的途径进行了研究,认为货币政策通过对股票价格的影响进而对投资支出产生影响。这一货币政策传导机制可分为两个环节:一是货币政策的变化对股票走势的影响,二是股价变动对投资支出的影响。这两个环节是相辅相成的,任何一个环节不符合托宾Q的理论则说明资本市场传导渠道不通畅。研究表明,托宾Q理论在我国尚不能发挥货币政策传导的作用。因此,有必要分析其影响因素并提出相应的对策。

Tobin′s Q theory is a theory of monetary policy reflected through capital market.It holds that monetary policy by means of affecting the stock price will inevitably affect the investment spending.Based on the analysis of our country′s monetary policy,stock price and the investment spending of enterprises,the paper holds that our monetary policy will affect the stock market or stock price directly or indirectly with slight effect.And the investment effect of stock price is not very prominent.Therefore,Tobin′s Q Theory is not applicable to the situation of China.However,it is necessary to analyze its influence and work out the corresponding measures.