且末县1971—2008年气温变化与异常特征分析

Analysis on the Variation and Anomalous Characteristics of Temperature in Qiemo during 1971-2008

利用线性倾向率、滑动平均、异常分析等方法,对且末县1971—2008年气温变化进行分析,着重分析气温年际变化、年代际变化等基本气候特征。结果表明,且末县年平均气温呈上升趋势,特别是20世纪90年代后期上升尤为明显,春、夏季增温对年平均气温的贡献最大;最高气温呈明显上升趋势,阶段性冷暖变化交替出现;最低气温在2005年前呈缓慢上升趋势,2005年后呈下降趋势,异常偏暖和异常偏冷年均未出现。

Using the linear trend,moving average and anomalous analysis methods, this paper analyzed the temperature variety of Qiemo during 1971- 2008 ,and focused on their basic climatic characteristics such as inter-annual and inter-decadal variations. The results showed that annual mean temperature presented a warming tendency in Qiemo county in the recent 38 years, and especially, increased in the later 1990s obviously; the warming in spring and summer made the greatest contribution to the annual average temperature; the maximum temperature showed a distinct increase trend with alternating cold and warm phase; the minimum temperature showed weak increasing trend before 2005 and decreasing trend after 2005; both the abnormal warm year and abnormal cool year did not occur.