摘要
蝗虫是新疆农牧业生产的严重害虫之一,它的发生与气象条件有着密切的关系。本文选取位于阿勒泰西部3个典型蝗区,即哈巴河县、吉木乃县、布尔津县为研究区域,采用合成分析和距平分析方法,研究温度、降水和日照对蝗虫发生的影响,结果表明:夏秋季的高温少雨有利于蝗虫的生长发育,而低温多雨不利于蝗虫灾害的发生,冬季降雪量少不利于蝗虫灾害的发生。利用Mann-Kendall方法对蝗虫发生面积进行突变检测;最后利用R/S方法分析未来蝗虫发生面积的变化趋势。
Locust is one of serious outbreak agricultural pest in Xinjiang; there are close relations between locust outbreak and meteorological condition. The effects of temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours on locust infestation in the west of Aletai in Xinjiang were examined by methods of composition analysis and anomaly analysis during 1991-2008. The results indicated that： in summer and autumn, high temperature and lack rainfall is conducive to the growth and development of locusts, and low temperature and raininess is not conducive to the occurrence of locusts. Less snow in winter is also not conducive to the occurrence of locusts. Besides,we carried on mutation examination by Mann-Kendall methods to the locust outbreak area in the three counties of western Aletai. Finally, we analyzed the future trend of locusts outbreak area in the three counties by R/S method.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2011年第4期58-62,共5页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
蝗灾
气温和降水
突变检测
R/S
grasshopper infestation
temperature
rainfall
Mann-Kendall methods
R/S method
