中国金融规模、金融结构与经济增长——基于省区面板数据的实证研究

Financial Scale,Financial Structure and Economic Growth——Empirical Research on Provincial Panel Data

本文运用我国省区1999至2008年的面板数据,系统考察了金融规模、银行集中度、直接融资比例以及其他相关控制变量对各地区经济增长的作用和影响。通过运用固定效应模型、工具变量法以及动态面板数据模型,我们发现,目前金融规模扩张不利于经济增长,而改善金融结构,降低银行集中度,提高中小金融机构在银行业中所占的比重,会增加银行业内部的竞争,促进经济增长。直接融资对经济增长的作用不显著。我们还发现,改善我国所有制结构有利于经济增长,固定资产投资和对外贸易依然是拉动经济增长的重要因素。

Using the panel data during the period from 1999 to 2008 at provincial level,this paper examines the effects of financial scale,the degree of bank concentration,direct finance and other relevant control factors on economic growth.Applying the fixed effect model,the method of instrument variable and dynamic panel data model,we find that financial scale negatively affects economic growth,but improving the financial structure by raising the ratio of medium small sized financial intermediaries will motivate the competition among banks,hence promote economic growth.The effect of direct finance on economic growth is not significant.We also identify that improving the ownership structure of national economy will promote economic growth and the capital investment and international trade are still two important factors to drive economic growth.