当前中国七大金融之谜与未观测金融的影响

Current Seven Myths of Finance in China and the Impact of Non-observed Finance

本文重点分析了2010年以来宏观调控背景下令人迷惑的七大金融问题,包括高法定准备金率是否有上限、巨量货币供应如何形成、超额储备是否是战略选择、高物价与房价为何难逆转、信贷资源配置是否有效、私募股权投资为何热衷于IPO退出、利率与汇率因何纠结中央银行等。通过解释这些现象背后的未观测金融活动的影响,从结构角度分析未观测金融存在的必然性,进而揭示未观测金融的规模与影响,并提出相应的规制政策建议。

In this paper, the author analyzed seven financial myths created under the background of macro - regulation, including high deposit reserve ratio limitation, how the huge amount of money supply formed, excess foreign exchange reserve is a strategy or not, why the high CPI and the price of housing could not be controlled, distribution of loan is effective or not, why the PE in- vestors would choose IPO for withdraw, central bank meets a dilemma of interest rate and exchange rate. By analyzing the existence necessity of non - observed finance standing at the perspective of structure, the author explained the influence of non - observed finance and disclosed the size and effects of NOF and put forward policy suggestions at the same time.