摘要
鉴于粮食生产系统的复杂性和信息不完全性,在对粮食生产系统灰色关联分析的基础上,确定出影响粮食产量的主要因子,然后建立灰色GM(1,N)预测模型;应用同一原始数据和GM(1,1)预测模型进行了比较,证明GM(1,N)预测模型具有较高的预测精度,较好地拟合了粮食产量的发展趋势。
In view of the fact that the complexity and incomplete information of grain production system,the primary factors influencing the grain production is decided on the basis of the grey relational analysis and then the grey model GM（1,N） forecasting model is proposed in the paper.Furthermore the GM（1,N） and GM（1,1）,which is used widely in many fields traditionally,are applied in the grain production forecasting with the same initial data.The result show that grey model GM（1,N） has higher precision and fits the trend in development of grain production better.So the GM（1,N） forecasting model based on grey relational analysis proposed in the paper offers a new method for the grain production forecasting.
出处
《农机化研究》
北大核心
2011年第9期78-80,共3页
Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research
基金
山东省教育厅科技计划项目(J09LD55)
关键词
灰色系统
GM(1
N)模型
灰色关联分析
粮食预测
grey system
grey model GM（1
N）
grey relational analysis
forecast of grain production.
