论CPI对我国产险保费增长的影响

当前我国经济回升的基础进一步巩固,保险业发展好于预期,但矛盾和风险仍不可忽视,持续上升的通胀预期可能给保险行业发展带来较多不利影响,值得关注。文章选取CPI和产险保费收入增长为变量,通过对两协整变量的Granger因果检验,得出CPI的变动引起产险保费收入增长的变动,同时产险保费增长的变动亦会影响CPI的变动;进而进行脉冲响应分析,从供求关系角度解释脉冲响应结果,结果表明短期波动影响较大,长期则影响较小。因而,审视宏观经济形势,加强成本控制,积极开拓海外市场,进行产品创新就显得尤为重要。

The basis of China＇ s current economic rebounding is further consolidated, and development of the insurance is better than expected, but contradictions and risks can still not be neglected. The rising inflation expectations may cause much negative influence on the insurance industry, which is worth our attention. Selecting CPI and production insurance premium changes of CPI caused changes of property income growth as variables, this article insurance premium income growth, and c comes to the conclusion that hanges of property insurance premium income growth also inflect the changes of CPI by two Association whole variable of Granger causal test; Then the author turns to impulse response analysis, and explains response results from the angle of supply and demand relationship. The results indicate that the effect of short - term fluctuations on property insurance premi- um is larger, while long - term is smaller. Therefore, scrutinizing the macroeconomic situation, strengthening the cost control, exploring overseas markets actively, and proceeding product innovation are particularly important.