产品内分工条件下人民币汇率变动对经济增长的非显著性影响

On the Non-significant Effect of RMB Foreign Exchange Rate upon Economic Growth under the condition of Intra-product Division

产品内分工的形成、发展和演变对国际间的经济合作、一国国民经济的发展以及企业的经营运作等多方面会产生巨大的影响。而近年来人民币汇率变动对我国经济增长的影响也是受各界瞩目的一个热点问题。因此研究该问题具有极其重要的现实意义与理论意义。本文首先从理论层面上探讨了汇率变动是如何通过产品内分工条件下的进出口贸易和国际直接投资来影响一国的经济增长的,在收集了1981年-2009年的年度数据后利用协整分析检验人民币实际有效汇率是否可以通过进出口贸易和国际直接投资来影响我国的经济增长。最后,针对当前人民币的升值提出适当的政策建议。

Formation, development and evolution of intra-product division has a large effect upon international economic cooperation, national economic development and enterprise operation. However, for recent years, the effect of RMB foreign exchange rate upon Chinese economic growth is a hot topic with popular attention. Therefore, it is of practical and theoretical significance to make research on this issue. In this paper, first, we discuss how the change of foreign exchange rate affects national economic growth through import and export trade and international direct investment under the condition of intra-product division. Then make a test that whether RMB real effective exchange rate can affect national economic growth with annual data during the period from 1981 to 2009. Finally, we propose policy and suggestion for present situation of RMB appreciation.