台湾政党体系发展趋势探析

An Analysis of Future Development of Party System in Taiwan

2009年台湾的县市长选举、2010年初的两次"立委"补选以及年底的"五都"选举表明,民进党的政治实力已经从2008年的低谷回升。鉴于国民党和民进党各有源于不同阶层、不同地域的基本支持者,台湾民众在身份认同、统"独"议题、两岸关系、涉外关系方面存在较明显的"蓝、绿"分野,有理由预料均衡两党体系和政党轮替,将成为岛内的政治常态。选举制度对政党体系具有形塑作用,台湾的选举制度有利两党体系的形成。

As the 2009 county magistrate elections,supplementary legislator elections,and 2010 municipal elections indicated,the political momentum of the Democratic Progressive Party（DPP） has resumed from its lowest point in 2008.Given the fact that both the Kuomintang（KMT） and the DPP have their basic supporters from different social strata and regions respectively,and that a ＂blue or green＂ dichotomy exists among the Taiwan Residents people in terms of identity,issues on unification and secession,cross-strait relations,and Taiwan＇s external ties,it is reasonable to expect a symmetric two party system and frequent power transfers between the two main parties in the years to come.