基于CA模型的西安城市空间扩展模拟及误差分析

Simulation of Xi'an urban expansion and error analysis based on CA

元胞自动机(CA)是城市发展动态模拟的重要工具。本文以西安市为例,利用基于遗传算法的CA模型对西安市1990-2007年的城市发展进行模拟,得到了较好的效果。结果表明,运用遗传算法建立的CA模型能够较好地模拟城市发展状态;对模拟误差分析表明,影响城市土地利用变化机制的尺度特征,城市规划调整、重大事件、重大建设项目和行政区划调整等过程,城市不同发展阶段和不同区位的扩展类型等都将影响确定转换规则、寻找最佳参数和模拟精度的结果。

Cellular Automata （CA） is an important tool of dynamic simulation of urban development. In this paper, the CA model, which based on the genetic algorithm, was used to simulate the development of Xi＇an in 1990-2007, and good results were obtained. The results showed that the higher simulation accuracy could be obtained by the CA model which based on the genetic algorithm, and the status of urban development can be easily simulated by it. The analysis on the simulation error indicated that the features of the urban land use mechanism, the confirmation of the transformation rules, the search for the optimum parameters and the simulation accuracy would be affected by the different urban development stages and the different location expansion types in the process of ur- ban planning adjustment, big event, major construction programme and administrative division adjustment.