基于生存分析方法的企业信息技术采纳研究

Information technology adoption using survival analysis technique

基于205家企业信息化建设的调研数据,采用生存分析方法对我国企业信息技术采纳的动态规律进行研究。首先将企业应用的典型信息技术分为五种类型:财务/人事系统、其它单/多部门业务应用系统、全局集成应用系统、跨企业应用系统、技术型系统。使用Kaplan-Meier法比较不同特征企业对这五类信息技术采纳状况的差异,得到的生存曲线能够反映研究期间任一时点不同企业对某种技术的动态采纳率。利用Cox回归模型对各企业特征对信息技术采纳的影响进行考察,结果指出企业所有制、行业类型、规模、组织结构、竞争程度、行业地位、成长阶段对五类技术的采纳的影响不同,并揭示了不同特征企业对这五类技术的采纳趋势。

Base on the survey data of informatization construction of 205 enterprises in China, the survival analysis technique was used to study the dynamic law of Information Technology （IT） adoption of Chinese enterprises. Enterprise IT applications were categorized into five types, that is, finance/accounting/human resource management system, the other single/multi function application system, overall integration application system, multi enterprise application system, and technological application system. The method of Kaplan -Meier was used to compare the difference of survival time of IT adoption for heterogeneous enterprises, and the resulting survival functions could reflect the dynamic adoption proportion at any particular time. Then Cox regression model was used to examine the impact of enterprise characteristics on IT adoption. The result indicates the direction and significance of the impact of each enterprise characteristics on the five types of technologies, respectively. It demonstrates that the ownership, industry type, size, organizational structure, competition level, industrial position of enterprises, and growth stage have different impact on the adoption of target technologies, and the adoption trend of the five types of technologies for heterogeneous enterprises are also revealed.