市场成长背景下地区经济周期的来源与分解

The Elements and Decomposition of Regional Business Cycle Under Market-Growth Background

基于我国由计划经济向市场经济转型的实际,本文将我国的经济周期以产业为依据理解为体制性波动和市场性波动的综合效应。根据改进的KorenandTenreyro(2007)分解方法将我国的地区经济周期从体制性波动、市场性波动和其他波动三个方面进行分解。分解结果表明:地区经济周期呈现出市场性波动不断增强和体制性波动不断减弱的长期趋势;东部地区的市场性波动要显著大于中西部地区的市场性波动,中西部地区的体制性波动要显著大于东部地区的体制性波动。结果表明市场化程度本身是我国地区经济周期差异化的重要原因,稳步推进区域市场化,培育完善、健全的全国性统一市场机制是实现我国经济周期"高位收敛"的必由之路。

Based on Transition Period that defined from Planned Economy to Market-Oriented Economy, we consider China＇s Business Cycle as the comprehensive effects of the Mechanism Fluctuation and Market Fluctuation. Hence, according to Improved Koren and Tenreyro（ 2007 ）Decomposition Method, this paper divides China＇s regional business cycle into three kinds： Mechanism Fluctuation, Market Fluctuation and Other Fluctuation. The Decomposition result shows strengthening trend in Mar- ket Fluctuation and dwindling trend in Market Fluctuation. What＇s more, the result indicates that Market Fluctuation in the East is bigger than in the West, while the Mechanism Fluctuation shows the opposite. The results also show that the extent of market is one of the most important reasons that lead to gaps in regional business cycle. Finally, we make the conclusion that only building the functional and single market can we let our business cycle run well with high level convergence.