基于组合模型的武隆景区长期游客流量预测

Long-term Forecasting of Tourism Demand in Wulong Scenic Area Based on Combinatorial Model

由于某景区经营权回购需进行景区游客量长期预测。为克服长期预测的不确定性,我们采用基于旅游地环境容量的LOGISTIC模型和考虑客源地旅游需求的回归迭代模型进行组合预测。前者包含旅游地的环境容量限制参数,主要基于供给制约因素结合时间序列数据进行预测。后者主要从客源地的人均收入、价格水平、价格弹性和收入弹性进行预测。然后整合两模型进行组合预测,对两种预测结果进行加权得到组合预测游客流量,很好地解决了集成旅游地环境容量、"申遗"前后与高速公路通车前后游客量变化、游客时间序列规律、客源地人均可支配收入、旅游地吸引力和旅游地生命周期等众多因素进行长期预测的问题。预测结果作为政府部门经营权回购中补偿额确定的主要依据,已被采用。

ecause of the buy-back of operation rights, it needs long-term visitor arrivals forecasting. In order to overcome the uncertainty of long-term forecasting, we use combinatorial forecasting model based on LOGISTIC model which considers environmental capacity and iterative demand model which considers the tourism demand to forecast visitor arrivals. The former contains the constraint parameters of environmental capacity, mainly based on supply constraints and time-series data. The latter mainly based on per capita income, price level, price elasticity and income elasticity. Then we integrate the two models for combinatorial forecasting. We get the visitor arrivals of combinatorial forecasting model through the weighted sum of the LOGISTIC model and iterative demand model, which solve the long- term prediction of multi-factor well. These factors are： environmental capacity, effect of application for World Natural Heritage, the change of visitor arrivals before and after highway construction, rules of visitors time-series, per capita disposable income of tourists source region, attraction and life cycle of tourist destination. The predicted results have been adopted by government as the main basis for determining the amount of compensation for buy-back of operation rights.