全球气候变化背景下中国黄河流域的响应

Response of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin to Global Climate Change

黄河流域地处干旱、半干旱地区,水资源系统对气候变化十分敏感。最近几十年黄河流域气温和降水发生了明显变化。20世纪80年代中期以来,黄河流域气温明显升高,且以冬季增温为主,流域北部增温尤其显著;20世纪90年代,黄河流域降水明显减少;进入21世纪,降水略有增加。气温升高和降水减少是黄河流域径流锐减的重要原因。根据气候模式预测结果,2050年黄河流域气温明显升高,降水可能略有增加,水资源供需矛盾将会进一步加剧,需要制定适应性对策,以减少气候变化对水资源的不利影响。

The Yellow River Basin is located in arid and semiarid regions of China,where water resources system is very sensitive to climate change.Temperature and precipitation in the Yellow River Basin have changed obviously in recent decades.Since the mid-1980s,temperature has been significantly increased,especially in winter temporally and in the north of the basin spatially.In the 1990s,precipitation in the Yellow River Basin was decreased apparently,and it has been slightly increased in 21st century.Climate warming and precipitation decrease were the important causes resulting in a sharp reduction of runoff volume in the Yellow River Basin.According to the predicted results with climate change model,the temperature would apparently increase and precipitation would have a slightly increment in 2050,which will aggravate the contradiction between demand and supply of water resources in the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,some adaptive measures should be taken so as to reduce the negative effects of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River Basin.