市场潜力、边界效应与贸易扩张

Market Potential,Border Effect and China's Trade Expansion

基于贸易扩张的新型要素模型,我们利用2000—2007年样本度量了国内和国际市场潜力指标并经验考察我国贸易二元边际的发展趋势;实证研究发现国内外市场潜力构成贸易二元扩张的需求动因,结论认为两个层次的市场潜力对外延边际的作用力均高于内延边际,国内市场潜力对二元边际的扩张作用高于国际市场潜力的解释力度;大国经济独有的"双重优势"有待强化,即体现多样性优势的外延边际和体现规模优势的内延边际仍需并驾齐驱。政策意义还在于揭开"内外需发展之困",即贸易外需扩张要扩大区域市场边际,获得地理多样性的竞争优势,贸易内需市场需要克服"边界效应",获得深度的市场潜力空间。

Based on our trade model of new advantage sources, we use the data at the province level to measure external and internal market potential in China and also calculate the two trade margins during the period of 2000-2007. The empirical result shows that market potentials have explained more for China＇s trade growth from demand aspect. Compared to international MP, domestic MP shows a highly significant impact on expansion in two trade margins. Each of MPs shows much more contribution to extensive margin than it does to intensive margin. Our findings also imply that the large economies like China, can take the advantage of exporting more product varieties to a wider range of markets.