突发事件下城市关键基础设施应急策略研究

Research on Emergency Strategy of Civic Critical Infrastructures under Urgent Events

城市关键基础设施系统由于相互之间存在的各种关联关系而形成了一个相互依存的网络化复杂系统,在突发事件下,一个单一系统功能的失效或部分功能丧失会导致与其相关联的系统产生级联失效现象。针对关键基础设施系统间相互耦合的特性,建立了突发事件下多层系统之间的供需关系网络数学模型,提出当某单一系统的节点失效后,通过分析事故链,利用与之耦合系统的供需关联关系,进行紧急状态下的备用资源调度应急策略。研究表明,基于城市关键基础设施系统之间的供需关联关系来进行资源调度的应急决策能够有效地突破传统方法中以调用备用资源为主的单系统内部优化应急策略的局限性,更有效地优化整个网络资源以降低系统总体损失。

Civic critical infrastructure systems have become an inter-connected networked system due to all kinds of interdependencies.Under emergent events,disruption or failure of one system may lead to a cascading effect on other interdependent systems.A mathematic model based on supply and demand relation of multi-network systems is developed considering the coupling characteristic of critical infrastructures when emergent events happen.The model can offer an emergent strategy to the urgent accident by analyzing events chain after single node fails.The numerical results indicate that this strategy of scheduling backup resource with consideration on supply and demand interdependency among systems can break through the limit of conventional emergency strategy within single system of dispatching standby energy and thus better optimize the total loss of the whole networked system.