基于变权重和信息熵的区域水资源安全投影寻踪评价模型

PROJECTION PURSUIT MODEL FOR EVALUATION OF REGION WATER RESOURCE SECURITY BASED ON CHANGEABLE WEIGHT AND INFORMATION

区域水资源安全评价是气候变化下区域水安全管理的一项重要调控措施。为合理确定各评价指标的权重,提出了把权重结构分解为评价指标的单样本权重和样本集权重的新观点,建立了用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法和最小相对信息熵原理确定单样本权重、用基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型和最大信息熵原理确定样本集权重的新模型——基于变权重和信息熵的投影寻踪评价模型(CWE-PP)。将CWE-PP模型应用于全国水资源安全背景下的巢湖流域水资源安全评价,结果表明:巢湖流域水资源安全状况整体上介于重度缺水与中度缺水之间,偏向重度缺水,略低于安徽省水资源安全状况。用CWE-PP进行区域水资源安全评价,物理概念明确,计算结果合理,方法通用,在资源与环境综合评价中具有一定的推广应用价值。

Evaluation of water resource security is one of the key countermeasures for managing regional water security.In this paper,Chaohu Lake watershed was used as a case study for this purpose.In order to rationally determine the weights of evaluation indices for regional water security,we developed a new method that differs from regular ones such as Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process（FAHP）,entropy weighted method and principal component analysis（PCA）,which were poorly proven in effectively describing and evaluating the parameters or indices within the complicated systems.According to our method,structural decomposition for the weights was performed by recognizing the single sample weights and sample set weights.The single sample weights of evaluation indices were computed by using the accelerating genetic algorithm,which is based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and minimum relative information entropy principle.The sample set weights of evaluation indices were computed by using the accelerating genetic algorithm,which is based on the projection pursuit method and maximum information entropy principle.Thus,based on above mentioned method,projection pursuit model（CWE-PP） for evaluating region water resource security based on the changeable weight and entropy principles was established.In the context of evaluation of water resource security,the CWE-PP model was used at local and nationwide levels.The result showed that water resource security level for Chaohu Laked watershed is between moderate and severe water shortages,but in general the level tends to severe water shortages.This indicated that water resource security level for Chaohu Laked watershed is worse than the overall situation of Anhui Province.The result also showed that compared with regular methods,the CWE-PP model is an effective evaluation method for region water resource security due to its distinct concepts of mathematics and physics.Thus,it can be widely applied in comprehensive evaluation for resources and environment.