山西省人口GM(1,1)模型预测

Shanxi population GM(1,1) model predicts

根据2001年至2009年的山西人口变化特征,选择GM(1,1)模型的指数模型并借助EXCEL、MATLAB等软件对山西省人口总量进行了数值拟合分析,并利用该模型对山西省人口总量开展预测.通过检验分析,模型的预测精度大于99.9%,并预测在今后一段时间内,山西省人口将继续保持低自然增长率,山西人口总量到2020年预计将增加到3 652.047万人.

Based on the population growth features in Shanxi from 1949 to 2009, with the help of EXCEL, MATLAB, it analyzes the population in Shanxi with exponential model of GM（1, 1 ） model. It is proved through tests that it can predict the population accurately, with 99.9 precision. Then the paper utilizes the information provided in the models to predict the population. The analysis shows that in the coming period, the Shanxi population will continue keep low growth rate, and that the total population will reach 3 652.047 by the year 2020 respectively.