主体行为、预期形成与房地产市场稳定

Subject Behavior,Expectation Formation and Stability in Real Estate Market

基于行为经济学理论,对我国房地产市场主体的决策过程和市场运行机制进行理论及实证研究后发现:我国房地产市场主体行为受货币幻觉、过度信心、片面信息、供给垄断等行为因素的显著影响,从而不断推高房地产升值预期,并在预期实现时得到进一步强化。这一正反馈过程导致升值预期持续累积升高,是我国房地产市场持续高速增长的重要动力。经测算,房地产成交量中43.42%的增长是由上述行为因素引起的。对行为因素的忽视是近年来房地产调控政策收效甚微的根本原因。因而,只有减少各种片面信息的频繁发布,改变地方政府对土地财政的直接依赖,消除房地产商的供给垄断,建立健全的房地产市场化运行机制,才能真正实现房地产市场稳定发展。

Based on the theory of behavioral economics,a study on market subject decision-making process and operating mechanism of our real estate market is carried out theoretically and empirically.The result shows that behaviors of government,real estate developers and residents are significantly affected by some behavior factors such as money illusion,overconfidence,one-sided information and monopoly supply,which continue to push up the appreciation expectations of the real estate,and the behaviors are strengthened when the expectation comes true.The appreciation expectation continues to increase for this positive feedback process,which is also the important driving force of the sustained high growth of real estate market in China.Estimated results show that 43.42% of the estate turnover growth results from these behavior factors.The neglect of behavior factors is the fundamental reason why our control policies impact little on real estate market in recent years.In conclusion,several policies,including the reduction of frequent publication of one-sided information,the change of the direct dependence on land finance of local government and the elimination of monopoly supply of real estate,are suggested to establish a sound marketization performance mechanism,so as to achieve a stable development in real estate market.