影响农村非农就业规模的主要因素:理论模型与统计检验

Main Factors Affecting the Scale of Rural Non-farm Employment:Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

托达罗人口流动模型的修正表明,由收入差距和农民工就业率决定的城乡预期收入差距是影响农村非农就业规模的主要因素。劳动力市场均衡分析表明,各种因素共同影响最终形成三部门条件下新的城乡收入差距。统计检验表明,务工工资与务农收入差距和农民工就业率是影响非农就业的最重要的因素,而农民工人力资本储量、人均家庭负担以及城市现代部门工资与务工收入差距的影响也较显著。因此,政策制订者必须通过发展农业生产和构建人口流动管理长效机制规范农村非农就业。

The Todaro Model amendment shows that the rural-urban expect income gap,which is decided by income gap and rural migrant workers＇ employment rate, is the main factor affecting the scale of nonfarm employment. Labor market equilibrium analysis indicates that various factors which produces effects jointly result in a new rural-urban income gap among three departments. Statistics test shows that the gap between rural migrant workers＇ wage and agriculture income and rural migrant workers＇ employment rate are the most important factors affecting the scale of non-farm employment, and that the effect of rural migrant workers＇ human capital reserves, per capita household burdens, the gap between urban modern department wage and agriculture income are also remarkable. Thus, policy-makers must regulate rural nonfarm employment by developing agricultural production and building a long-term mechanism of population flow management.