物流对珠三角地区对外贸易作用的实证研究——基于改进的贸易引力模型

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Logistics on International Trade in the Pearl River Delta Region——Based on Revising Trade Gravity Model

文章根据改进的贸易引力模型,对珠三角地区2001—2009年的相关面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现,珠三角地区的货物周转量、人口规模、GDP和贸易伙伴国(地区)的GDP对贸易额增长有促进的作用,而贸易伙伴国的人口规模却对贸易额增长起着阻碍作用。因此,珠三角地区要转变依靠低劳动力成本优势的贸易模式,大力提高物流体系的效率,降低商品流通领域的贸易成本,以改变目前珠三角地区近距离为主的对外贸易格局,促进与不同收入水平及人口规模国家(地区)之间的贸易发展。

According to the revising trade gravity model and using the panel data of the Pearl River Delta region during 2001--2009, the results of empirical analysis are that the cargo turnover population size, GDP of the Pearl River Delta region, GDP of trade partner countries （regions） have postive effect; and population size of trading partners has negative effect on the import and export trade of the Pearl River Delta region. So in the future, in order to change the current situation which exporting and importing from close quarters mainly, and to promote trade with different income levels and population sized countries （regions）, Pearl River Delta region should change trade patterns which relying on low labor cost advantage, and improve the efficiency of the logistics system greatly to reduce trade costs of goods circulation.