重庆市农村剩余劳动力转移的实证分析——基于重庆市1996—2010年面板数据检验

A Data-Based Analysis of Rural Surplus Labor Transfer Panel Data Tests in Chongqing in 1996—2010

在实现工业化的过程中,农村剩余劳动力转移既是我国实现持续经济增长必须面对的重大问题,也是解决我国"三农"问题的重要途径。文章基于重庆市1996—2010年的数据建立动态模型,实证分析表明:重庆市工业、城市服务业是农村剩余劳动力转移的主要去向,农业、建筑业和乡镇企业的发展虽然对重庆市农村剩余劳动力转移有促进作用,但相对较弱。进一步发展农业经济,使得更多的劳动力从农村解放出来;大力发展工业和第三产业,使得第三产业能够吸收更多的劳动力,是解决重庆市农村剩余劳动力的战略选择。

In the process of industrialization,transfer of rural surplus labor force is not only a major issue faced with sustained economic growth for China,but also an important way to solve the ＂Three Rural＂ issue.This paper establishes dynamic model based on 1996-2010 data of Chongqing,and the empirical analysis reveals that the industrial,urban services in Chongqing are the target of the transfer of rural surplus labor.Agricultural,property construction and township enterprises development can promote the transfer of rural surplus labor,but is far from satisfactory.Further development of the agricultural economy can liberate more labor force from rural areas and rapid development of industry and tertiary industry,making tertiary industry absorb more labor,which is a strategic choice to solve the surplus labor in rural areas of Chongqing.