时间序列法在高校新生入学率预测中的应用

Application of Time Series in Freshmen Enrollment Rate Prediction

采用平滑线散点图分析某高校招生部门提供的2005～2009年分省、直辖市所录取新生入学报到率历史数据,应用基于时间序列法的新生入学报到率预测模型预测了2010年14个省、直辖市新生入学报到率,与实际报到率相比较结果显示由模型预测出的2010年新生报到率绝大部分处于置信区间.该模型可为高校招生部门在各省、直辖市投放招生指标提供一种定量决策方法.

Scatter diagrams of smoothed lines are used to analyze enrollment rates of freshmen from different provinces and municipalities from 2005 to 2009 in a college. Enrollment rates of freshmen of 14 provinces and municipalities in 2010 are predicted based on time series. This model offers a quantitative approach to enrollment departments of colleges and universities to allocate enrollment quotas in different provinces and municipalities.